Sophistry
No. 06 Cognitive bias

Bandwagon Effect

Believe something is more likely to be true because a lot of other people believe it.

A claim resting on a tall stack of identical heads, with a short block of evidence standing on the same ground well below it. a b
FIG. 6a, the count of people who hold the claim, stacked one unit to a head, carrying the whole weight of it. b, the evidence, which stands on the same ground and reaches nowhere near.

Illustrative example

"Millions of people can't be wrong, this stock is definitely going to keep rising."


Popularity and truth are different things. A belief can be widespread and still wrong, and a belief can be true while almost nobody holds it yet.

The bandwagon effect uses the size of a crowd as a stand-in for evidence, which feels reassuring but proves nothing about whether the underlying claim is correct.

Ask what the actual evidence for the claim is, separate from how many people currently agree with it.

Seen in the wild

Real, sourced instances of this technique in actual public debate.

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